能(neng)源安(an)全是关系我国经济社会发展的全局性(xing)、战略性(xing)问(wen)题。2021年(nian)，我国部分地区(qu)出现(xian)了缺煤、限电(dian)等(deng)能(neng)源供应(ying)问(wen)题，尤其四季(ji)度以来(lai)，能(neng)源保供面临严峻(jun)挑(tiao)战。党中央、国务院高度重(zhong)(zhong)视(shi)，采取(qu)系列政(zheng)策措施确(que)保了采暖季(ji)及重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)活动期间(jian)电(dian)力、热力供应(ying)安(an)全。
2021年煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)以不足(zu)50%的(de)(de)(de)装机占(zhan)比，生产(chan)了(le)全(quan)(quan)国60%的(de)(de)(de)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)，承担了(le)70%的(de)(de)(de)顶(ding)峰任务，发(fa)挥(hui)着(zhe)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力安全(quan)(quan)稳定(ding)供(gong)应(ying)(ying)、应(ying)(ying)急调峰、集(ji)中(zhong)供(gong)热(re)等(deng)重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)础性(xing)(xing)作(zuo)(zuo)用。煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)统中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)础保障性(xing)(xing)和系(xi)统调节(jie)性(xing)(xing)特性(xing)(xing)，决定(ding)了(le)在(zai)相当长时期内仍将承担保障我国能源电(dian)(dian)(dian)力安全(quan)(quan)的(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)作(zuo)(zuo)用。电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤的(de)(de)(de)充足(zu)稳定(ding)供(gong)应(ying)(ying)，是(shi)煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)机组有效出力的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)础，电(dian)(dian)(dian)网安全(quan)(quan)对电(dian)(dian)(dian)力燃料供(gong)应(ying)(ying)能力提出更高要(yao)求。随着(zhe)煤炭行业淘汰落后(hou)产(chan)能持(chi)续推进(jin)、安全(quan)(quan)环保要(yao)求不断升(sheng)级，煤炭产(chan)能产(chan)量(liang)供(gong)应(ying)(ying)弹性(xing)(xing)不足(zu)，原(yuan)有区(qu)域性(xing)(xing)供(gong)需平(ping)衡被打破，阶(jie)段性(xing)(xing)、区(qu)域性(xing)(xing)供(gong)需失衡明显。
为深入贯彻落实习近平(ping)总书(shu)记重(zhong)要(yao)指示批(pi)示精(jing)神，以及党中(zhong)央、国务院(yuan)关于能(neng)源(yuan)稳定供应(ying)的决策部署，全面总结去年(nian)以来的能(neng)源(yuan)电(dian)力保障工(gong)作，防(fang)范再次出现市场供需(xu)失衡(heng)和(he)供应(ying)安全问题，中(zhong)电(dian)联开展(zhan)了(le)“2021年(nian)电(dian)煤与电(dian)力供应(ying)紧张原因(yin)(yin)分析调研(yan)”，在多形式调研(yan)的基础上(shang)，形成调研(yan)报告,厘清导致能(neng)源(yuan)电(dian)力、尤其电(dian)煤供应(ying)不(bu)足(zu)的原因(yin)(yin)，研(yan)判未来发展(zhan)需(xu)求(qiu)及面临的问题，并提出针对性建议，供政府有关部门参考(kao)。
2021年电(dian)煤(mei)与(yu)电(dian)力供应紧张(zhang)情况(kuang)及(ji)主要原因
2021年有(you)序用电情况
近(jin)年来，我国(guo)部(bu)分省市在迎峰度(du)夏、迎峰度(du)冬等用电高峰期(qi)间又(you)出现(xian)采(cai)取有序(xu)用电情况，反映出结构(gou)性、时段性供用电矛(mao)盾问题。
2021年，全(quan)国电(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)形势总体偏紧，全(quan)国最高(gao)发受电(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)力为11.92亿(yi)千(qian)瓦(出现在7月14日)，同比增长(zhang)7.9%。同年全(quan)口径装机(ji)容量(liang)同比增长(zhang)7.9%，但(dan)水电(dian)(dian)、火电(dian)(dian)和核(he)电(dian)(dian)等基础性电(dian)(dian)源(yuan)新(xin)增装机(ji)容量(liang)仅同比增长(zhang)4.5%，远低于发受电(dian)(dian)力增长(zhang)幅度，造成顶峰能力明显减弱(ruo)。
分(fen)时间看，在(zai)年初(chu)、迎峰度(du)夏以及9~10月(yue)部(bu)分(fen)地区电力(li)供应紧张。尤(you)其9~10月(yue)，全国电力(li)供需总体偏紧，超过(guo)20个省级(ji)电网采(cai)取了有序(xu)用电措施。从有序(xu)用电执行情况看，部(bu)分(fen)地区有序(xu)用电负(fu)荷达到(dao)最大(da)负(fu)荷的20%以上(shang)(shang)，甚(shen)至达到(dao)工业负(fu)荷的50%以上(shang)(shang)，接近可(ke)限负(fu)荷极(ji)限，导致(zhi)个别地区少数时段(duan)出现拉闸(zha)限电。
2021年有序用电的主要原因
经课(ke)题(ti)组(zu)调研分析，主(zhu)要有以下(xia)5个方面(mian)的原(yuan)因：
一是(shi)在宏观(guan)经济、气温等因素拉动(dong)下，用电量(liang)快速增长。2021年(nian)，我国(guo)全社会用电量(liang)同比增长10.3%。另(ling)外(wai)，极(ji)端天(tian)气加剧部分地区(qu)电力(li)供应紧张，例如，南方区(qu)域夏季高温干旱天(tian)数偏多等。
二(er)是(shi)水电(dian)(dian)(dian)等清(qing)洁能(neng)源(yuan)发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)出力减少(shao)。2021年，全国水电(dian)(dian)(dian)发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)下降(jiang)1.1%，全国水电(dian)(dian)(dian)设备(bei)利用小(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)同比(bi)降(jiang)低203小(xiao)(xiao)时(shi)。水电(dian)(dian)(dian)发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量负(fu)增长(zhang)，汛期主(zhu)要(yao)流(liu)域降(jiang)水偏少(shao)是(shi)最主(zhu)要(yao)原因(yin)，主(zhu)要(yao)影响华东、华中和南方区域。需(xu)要(yao)特别关注的(de)是(shi)，天气情况对水电(dian)(dian)(dian)、风电(dian)(dian)(dian)和光伏(fu)发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)等的(de)发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)出力也影响显著，会直(zhi)接导(dao)致(zhi)煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)出力与对电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤需(xu)求(qiu)量的(de)变(bian)化，例如(ru)，东北区域的(de)部分时(shi)段新能(neng)源(yuan)出力骤减，导(dao)致(zhi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)应存在短(duan)时(shi)缺口。
三(san)是电煤(mei)(mei)和天(tian)(tian)然(ran)气(qi)等一次能(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)应(ying)偏紧(jin)，火电机(ji)(ji)组有(you)效出力受阻。煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)产量与用煤(mei)(mei)需求(qiu)明(ming)显不匹配，特别(bie)在2021年(nian)(nian)迎峰(feng)度(du)夏和度(du)冬期(qi)间(jian)，煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)市(shi)场供(gong)需严重失衡，煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)库存持续处于历史低位，导(dao)致煤(mei)(mei)电机(ji)(ji)组有(you)效出力受阻。天(tian)(tian)然(ran)气(qi)供(gong)应(ying)与需求(qiu)面临(lin)同样问题，部(bu)分地(di)区由于天(tian)(tian)然(ran)气(qi)供(gong)应(ying)紧(jin)张、价格(ge)高企(qi)等原(yuan)因影(ying)响(xiang)(xiang)燃(ran)机(ji)(ji)出力。2021年(nian)(nian)生产天(tian)(tian)然(ran)气(qi)2053亿立(li)方(fang)米(mi)，比上年(nian)(nian)增长8.2%，但同期(qi)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)气(qi)表(biao)观消费量同比增长15%左(zuo)右。迎峰(feng)度(du)夏期(qi)间(jian)，广东、江苏(su)等部(bu)分地(di)区气(qi)源(yuan)紧(jin)张，造成部(bu)分燃(ran)机(ji)(ji)停机(ji)(ji)，影(ying)响(xiang)(xiang)电力供(gong)应(ying)。
四是多重(zhong)因素叠加，部分省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)跨省(sheng)区电(dian)(dian)量调(diao)入(ru)(ru)减少(shao)。主要(yao)受水电(dian)(dian)发电(dian)(dian)量减少(shao)、送(song)出省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)用电(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)增(zeng)加等影响，部分外购电(dian)(dian)占比(bi)(bi)较大(da)的省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)输入(ru)(ru)电(dian)(dian)量明显下(xia)降或基(ji)本(ben)持平，难以(yi)满足本(ben)省(sheng)用电(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)的较快增(zeng)长，是输入(ru)(ru)电(dian)(dian)量占比(bi)(bi)较大(da)的省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)缺(que)电(dian)(dian)的主要(yao)原(yuan)因之一。
五是地方政府基于能耗(hao)“双(shuang)控”的限电措施(shi),一定程度(du)上(shang)“烘(hong)托”了用电紧张气氛。2021年(nian)(nian)8月，国家发改委印发的《2021年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)各地区(qu)(qu)(qu)能耗(hao)双(shuang)控目(mu)标完(wan)成(cheng)情况晴雨表》显(xian)示，青海、宁(ning)夏、广西等12个地区(qu)(qu)(qu)在能耗(hao)降(jiang)低和能源消费总量方面(mian)均呈现严峻(jun)态势，上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)“双(shuang)控”目(mu)标均未能完(wan)成(cheng)。为完(wan)成(cheng)能耗(hao)“双(shuang)控”年(nian)(nian)度(du)目(mu)标，各省区(qu)(qu)(qu)采取(qu)对电解铝等高耗(hao)能企业(ye)实施(shi)限电限产等措施(shi)，尽(jin)快改善能耗(hao)问题。
电煤紧缺情况及主要(yao)原(yuan)因(yin)
2021年电煤紧缺情况
2021年，全国煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)消费(fei)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)4.6%。其(qi)中，电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂发电(dian)(dian)(dian)、供热消耗(hao)(hao)原煤(mei)(mei)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)10.2%，折合标煤(mei)(mei)消耗(hao)(hao)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)7.8%。规模以(yi)上煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)企业原煤(mei)(mei)产量(liang)(liang)40.7亿吨，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)4.7%，其(qi)中前(qian)三季度(du)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)3.7%，原煤(mei)(mei)生产呈(cheng)明显(xian)的前(qian)低后高特征。由(you)于(yu)原煤(mei)(mei)产量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速远低于(yu)同(tong)(tong)期煤(mei)(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)消耗(hao)(hao)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速，市场严重供不应(ying)求(qiu)，价格持(chi)续高位攀升，电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂存煤(mei)(mei)逐步降至(zhi)低位。根据中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联(lian)统计(ji)监测(ce)，9月(yue)底(di)，中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联(lian)统计(ji)口径(jing)燃煤(mei)(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)库存同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)减少45.7%;电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)可用天(tian)数11.4天(tian)，电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)库存低于(yu)7天(tian)的燃煤(mei)(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)厂合计(ji)193个，占比(bi)(bi)31%。进入四季度(du)，随着国家大力推(tui)进煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)产保供，全国煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)产量(liang)(liang)和市场供应(ying)量(liang)(liang)持(chi)续增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)。
另外，煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)生产(chan)继续向主(zhu)要产(chan)煤(mei)省份集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)。2021年，山西(xi)、内蒙古(gu)、陕西(xi)、新疆、贵(gui)州、安徽系全(quan)(quan)国(guo)规模(mo)以上(shang)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)企(qi)业原煤(mei)产(chan)量超亿吨(dun)的(de)6个省(区)，其原煤(mei)产(chan)量占全(quan)(quan)国(guo)规模(mo)以上(shang)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)企(qi)业原煤(mei)产(chan)量的(de)85.9%，比重(zhong)同比提高1.6个百分点;全(quan)(quan)国(guo)原煤(mei)产(chan)量亿吨(dun)以上(shang)企(qi)业保(bao)持在(zai)6家，分别是国(guo)家能源(yuan)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)、晋能控股集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)、山东(dong)能源(yuan)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)、中(zhong)煤(mei)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)、陕煤(mei)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)、山西(xi)焦煤(mei)集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)。六大集(ji)(ji)团(tuan)产(chan)量合计(ji)约18.5亿吨(dun)，较上(shang)年增(zeng)加约1.7亿吨(dun)，增(zeng)长约10%，占全(quan)(quan)国(guo)原煤(mei)产(chan)量的(de)45%左右，煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)企(qi)业区域性集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)度进一步提高。
2021年电煤紧缺的主要(yao)原因(yin)
经课题(ti)组调(diao)研分析，2021年(nian)电煤短缺主要(yao)有以下5个方(fang)面的原因：
一是煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)有(you)效(xiao)供(gong)给量不(bu)足(zu)。2021年全国原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)产量增(zeng)长明(ming)显(xian)低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)发(fa)电(dian)供(gong)热(re)(re)用煤(mei)(mei)增(zeng)长。同(tong)(tong)时，由于(yu)(yu)(yu)2021年煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)供(gong)应(ying)热(re)(re)值较2020年明(ming)显(xian)降低(di)，导致煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)实际有(you)效(xiao)供(gong)给量进(jin)一步减少。根据中电(dian)联监测，2021年电(dian)煤(mei)(mei)热(re)(re)值较2020年降低(di)110千(qian)卡左(zuo)右，同(tong)(tong)比下降2.3%，进(jin)口煤(mei)(mei)也由于(yu)(yu)(yu)煤(mei)(mei)源国结构变(bian)化(hua)热(re)(re)值下降明(ming)显(xian)。综合(he)考虑，煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)(tan)有(you)效(xiao)供(gong)给量增(zeng)速低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)全社会耗(hao)量增(zeng)速1.14个(ge)百分点，低(di)于(yu)(yu)(yu)电(dian)煤(mei)(mei)耗(hao)量增(zeng)速4.43个(ge)百分点。
二是煤(mei)矿(kuang)生产缺(que)乏弹性。受多因素影响，2021年，用煤(mei)高峰期煤(mei)矿(kuang)产量增(zeng)加有限，即使(shi)在有关部(bu)门自(zi)5月(yue)中(zhong)旬起，持(chi)续出台(tai)多种增(zeng)产增(zeng)供措施情况下，3~9月(yue)当月(yue)原煤(mei)产量仍同比下降或基(ji)本持(chi)平，增(zeng)产效果不(bu)及预期。
三(san)是区(qu)(qu)域性(xing)(xing)和时段性(xing)(xing)供需结构(gou)不平衡。煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)产业格局(ju)转为(wei)“中西部为(wei)主、向晋陕蒙集中”，多个煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)产区(qu)(qu)成(cheng)为(wei)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)净(jing)调(diao)入(ru)省，重庆地区(qu)(qu)关闭了所有(you)煤(mei)矿，东北地区(qu)(qu)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)资源枯竭(jie)，区(qu)(qu)域用(yong)煤(mei)大量依靠(kao)跨省区(qu)(qu)调(diao)运(yun)。电煤(mei)消(xiao)耗(hao)季(ji)节性(xing)(xing)波动明显，与煤(mei)矿生产、铁路运(yun)输均衡性(xing)(xing)的(de)矛盾越来越突出(chu)。需要特(te)别(bie)关注的(de)是，天气因素对(dui)短(duan)时煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)供需平衡的(de)影响，将会随着(zhe)新能源比例的(de)增加(jia)愈加(jia)显著(zhu)。
四是(shi)煤炭产运用储存能力不足。根据数(shu)据对比分析，电力企业库(ku)存变动幅度明显高(gao)于产、运等其他中间环节，一定(ding)程度上反映了主要(yao)依托电力企业的库(ku)存发挥蓄水(shui)池作用，应(ying)对电量和(he)供热峰谷波动。
五是中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)机制(zhi)作(zuo)用减(jian)弱。据调研了解，2021年，部(bu)分重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)企带头减(jian)供(gong)(gong)、涨价(jia)，中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)严肃性、权威性受到挑(tiao)战。部(bu)分煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)企业仅(jin)按政府文件(jian)要(yao)求的(de)履约率最低值兑(dui)现(xian)纳入重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)监管(guan)的(de)三方互保合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)，而未纳入重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)监管(guan)的(de)中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)履约率明(ming)显(xian)偏(pian)低。由于纳入重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)监管(guan)的(de)电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)不足电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)总(zong)需(xu)求量的(de)40%，电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)保供(gong)(gong)稳价(jia)“压舱石”作(zuo)用明(ming)显(xian)减(jian)弱。特(te)别是在(zai)6~8月份保供(gong)(gong)的(de)关(guan)键阶(jie)段，电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)长期(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)同(tong)(tong)兑(dui)现(xian)量减(jian)少更为明(ming)显(xian)。同(tong)(tong)时(shi)，存在(zai)违背价(jia)格条款、随(sui)意定价(jia)、减(jian)少兑(dui)现(xian)量、要(yao)求搭(da)售现(xian)货等违规行为。
电煤及电力需(xu)求和(he)面临的挑战
根据中(zhong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)联预测(ce)，“十(shi)四(si)(si)五”期间，全社会(hui)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)量年(nian)均增(zeng)长4.8%，2025年(nian)全社会(hui)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)量达到9.5万亿千瓦(wa)时。综合考虑(lv)各发电(dian)(dian)(dian)类型情(qing)况，预计2022年(nian)全年(nian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤消耗(hao)增(zeng)长2.5~4.2%，“十(shi)四(si)(si)五”电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行业用煤年(nian)均增(zeng)速2.7%左(zuo)右，2025年(nian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行业用煤25.5亿吨左(zuo)右。电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤在(zai)煤炭消费中(zhong)的(de)占比将(jiang)进一步提高。
面临的问题和(he)挑战(zhan)有：
一是煤矿(kuang)产(chan)能(neng)释放不(bu)(bu)及(ji)需(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)速度。近年(nian)煤炭行业固定资(zi)(zi)产(chan)投资(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)速相对较低。考虑到煤矿(kuang)建(jian)(jian)设周期(qi)长(zhang)(zhang)且(qie)待(dai)开(kai)发资(zi)(zi)源有(you)限，煤企投资(zi)(zi)建(jian)(jian)矿(kuang)意愿(yuan)不(bu)(bu)强，后续煤炭产(chan)能(neng)释放空间(jian)有(you)限，尤(you)其(qi)“十四五”期(qi)间(jian)煤炭供(gong)(gong)给(ji)或难响(xiang)应(ying)需(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)。上年(nian)四季度，保供(gong)(gong)政策下核增(zeng)(zeng)的(de)产(chan)能(neng)产(chan)量(liang)转(zhuan)为永久产(chan)能(neng)的(de)数量(liang)尚(shang)不(bu)(bu)明确，保供(gong)(gong)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)产(chan)能(neng)难以(yi)在短(duan)时间(jian)内全(quan)部形成有(you)效(xiao)供(gong)(gong)给(ji)，难以(yi)满(man)足稳增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)需(xu)要。今(jin)年(nian)国务院常(chang)务会议提出(chu)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)3亿吨产(chan)能(neng)，手(shou)续办理、建(jian)(jian)设周期(qi)等有(you)待(dai)协调推(tui)进。
二是高(gao)耗量(liang)阶段铁(tie)路运(yun)力(li)无(wu)法满(man)足全部需(xu)求(qiu)。我(wo)国煤(mei)(mei)炭资源(yuan)和消(xiao)费(fei)需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)逆向分布，形成(cheng)(cheng)了“北煤(mei)(mei)南(nan)运(yun)”和“西煤(mei)(mei)东调”的(de)基本运(yun)输(shu)格局(ju)，对跨(kua)区(qu)域采购运(yun)输(shu)依(yi)赖较大(da)。在近(jin)半(ban)数煤(mei)(mei)炭依(yi)赖跨(kua)省区(qu)调运(yun)情(qing)况下(xia)，高(gao)峰阶段运(yun)力(li)形成(cheng)(cheng)一定瓶颈。全国煤(mei)(mei)炭调出(chu)地集中、调出(chu)量(liang)大(da)，2021年(nian)纳(na)入(ru)三方互保电煤(mei)(mei)铁(tie)路运(yun)力(li)9.5亿吨，煤(mei)(mei)炭产运(yun)需(xu)衔(xian)接(jie)难度和压力(li)很(hen)大(da)，用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)高(gao)峰阶段，主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)煤(mei)(mei)炭外送通道(dao)及主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)下(xia)水港(gang)需(xu)全天(tian)候满(man)负荷运(yun)行，也依(yi)然有供应(ying)紧(jin)张的(de)风险。
三是进(jin)(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)减(jian)少和不确定(ding)性增加需国(guo)内(nei)资(zi)源(yuan)支撑。受(shou)新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、能源(yuan)危机(ji)等(deng)(deng)多因(yin)素影(ying)响(xiang)，2022年我(wo)国(guo)进(jin)(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)采购量(liang)将明显降低(di)，给(ji)国(guo)内(nei)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)供(gong)(gong)需平衡带来较大缺口(kou)，尤(you)其对东(dong)南沿海(hai)地区影(ying)响(xiang)最为明显。电煤(mei)(mei)(mei)供(gong)(gong)应须主要依赖国(guo)内(nei)资(zi)源(yuan)。当前(qian)，国(guo)家高度重(zhong)视(shi)，已采取补签进(jin)(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)应急保障中长期(qi)合同、进(jin)(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)零关税等(deng)(deng)措施，但政策(ce)落地及效果发挥(hui)仍(reng)存一定(ding)不确定(ding)性，且弥补其缺口(kou)需大量(liang)北方港(gang)下水(shui)，铁(tie)路(lu)运力存在一定(ding)瓶颈(jing)。
四(si)是安(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)、土地(di)等政策对产(chan)(chan)(chan)量的影响。煤(mei)(mei)炭产(chan)(chan)(chan)能核增(zeng)及接续用地(di)等征用手续繁杂。仍有部分地(di)区(qu)在安(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)监管中存在一(yi)个矿出现(xian)安(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)事故，整个区(qu)域或所(suo)属集(ji)团全(quan)(quan)国(guo)煤(mei)(mei)矿停产(chan)(chan)(chan)整顿的“一(yi)人生病，全(quan)(quan)家吃药(yao)”的现(xian)象，但根据(ju)2021年各(ge)月(yue)数据(ju)分析，煤(mei)(mei)矿产(chan)(chan)(chan)量稳定在相对较高水平(ping)时(shi)，并未造成煤(mei)(mei)矿事故的大幅增(zeng)加(jia)。
五(wu)是煤(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)业大面积严(yan)重亏(kui)损影响保供(gong)能力(li)。由于电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)价格(ge)的(de)非理性上涨，燃料成本大幅(fu)上涨，2021年五(wu)大发(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集团(tuan)煤(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板块亏(kui)损1427亿元，累计亏(kui)损面达到80%左右，整体资产(chan)负债率同(tong)比(bi)提高2.2个(ge)百(bai)分点(dian)。若(ruo)高煤(mei)价持(chi)续，煤(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)业现(xian)金流紧张(zhang)，电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)企(qi)(qi)业将面临资金链断裂风险，部分煤(mei)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)(qi)业将陷入(ru)无(wu)钱买煤(mei)的(de)困境。同(tong)时，电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)厂技改、设备检(jian)修维(wei)(wei)护等安全投入(ru)欠账较多(duo)(duo)、隐患增多(duo)(duo)，部分电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)厂甚至(zhi)无(wu)法(fa)维(wei)(wei)持(chi)正(zheng)常的(de)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)生(sheng)产(chan)，企(qi)(qi)业的(de)稳(wen)定生(sheng)产(chan)能力(li)下降，已严(yan)重威胁电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保供(gong)和系统安全稳(wen)定运行。
相关建议(yi)
保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)(gong)应(ying)安(an)全(quan)将是(shi)未来能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)工(gong)作的重点之一，确保(bao)(bao)(bao)电(dian)煤充(chong)足稳定(ding)(ding)供(gong)(gong)应(ying)是(shi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)国(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)电(dian)力安(an)全(quan)的关键。面对近期(qi)更(geng)加(jia)复杂严峻的国(guo)内外挑战，更(geng)需要从能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安(an)全(quan)的角度加(jia)强(qiang)统筹和(he)(he)顶(ding)层设(she)计，建立(li)稳定(ding)(ding)持续的供(gong)(gong)应(ying)机(ji)制和(he)(he)长(zhang)(zhang)效协调机(ji)制，从增加(jia)煤炭产(chan)能(neng)(neng)、增强(qiang)产(chan)量弹性、完善长(zhang)(zhang)协和(he)(he)市场机(ji)制、加(jia)强(qiang)形势监测(ce)和(he)(he)预测(ce)预警(jing)等(deng)方(fang)面加(jia)强(qiang)电(dian)力燃(ran)料(liao)供(gong)(gong)应(ying)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)体系建设(she)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)电(dian)力燃(ran)料(liao)供(gong)(gong)应(ying)安(an)全(quan)，做好全(quan)社会电(dian)力、热力用能(neng)(neng)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)工(gong)作，防范再次出现(xian)市场供(gong)(gong)需失(shi)衡和(he)(he)供(gong)(gong)应(ying)安(an)全(quan)问题。
一(yi)(yi)是加强能(neng)源(yuan)安(an)全产业(ye)链统筹。面(mian)对复杂严峻的(de)(de)国内外(wai)能(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)需形势，坚持系(xi)统思维，进一(yi)(yi)步深入(ru)研究(jiu)煤、电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、油、气(qi)等多类型能(neng)源(yuan)协(xie)调互(hu)济(ji)关(guan)系(xi)，充分认识电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤充足稳定供(gong)应在能(neng)源(yuan)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)全中的(de)(de)主要作用，进一(yi)(yi)步加强各类型电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)(de)统筹规划和(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)跨省跨区(qu)送电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)交(jiao)易(yi)和(he)平(ping)衡，进一(yi)(yi)步完善有序用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)管理和(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)场化建设，同时推动进一(yi)(yi)步完善煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)价(jia)格补偿机制、容量电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)价(jia)机制等，以(yi)市(shi)场化手(shou)段优(you)化煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)功能(neng)和(he)结构，提高电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保障能(neng)力(li)。
二是提升煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)有效供(gong)应能(neng)力。加(jia)快协调已(yi)获批产能(neng)落地，建立煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)储(chu)备产能(neng)，提高煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)区域保(bao)供(gong)能(neng)力，把(ba)提高有效供(gong)应能(neng)力责任落实到安全(quan)、环保(bao)、土地生态等(deng)各环节，将(jiang)月度标准(zhun)煤(mei)(mei)销(xiao)售量(liang)作为产煤(mei)(mei)省份和(he)主要(yao)企业(ye)保(bao)供(gong)考(kao)核标准(zhun)，切实加(jia)强煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)质(zhi)量(liang)管理，避(bi)免煤(mei)(mei)质(zhi)进一步下(xia)降。
三是增(zeng)强(qiang)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭(tan)生(sheng)(sheng)产供(gong)应弹(dan)性。制定煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿保(bao)供(gong)与(yu)弹(dan)性生(sheng)(sheng)产机制，建立保(bao)供(gong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿“白名单”，形(xing)成煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿应急生(sheng)(sheng)产能力，优化煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)矿生(sheng)(sheng)产组织(zhi)，增(zeng)强(qiang)进口煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)补充(chong)作用的稳定性。
四是强化中长期合同(tong)机制(zhi)。加强组织协调(diao)，确保(bao)中长期合同(tong)全(quan)覆盖等(deng)政策稳健持(chi)续。优(you)化相(xiang)关机制(zhi)，重(zhong)点解决煤质(zhi)严重(zhong)不(bu)匹配(pei)、运(yun)输流向错配(pei)等(deng)问(wen)题，推广“优(you)质(zhi)优(you)价”的分档级差(cha)定价机制(zhi)。加强运(yun)输协调(diao)和履约监管(guan)。
五是(shi)加强(qiang)形势监测和预(yu)(yu)测预(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)。加强(qiang)统(tong)计数据规(gui)范(fan)性、准确性，摸清全国煤炭产能(neng)(neng)、有(you)效产量、煤质(zhi)等(deng)供(gong)应(ying)(ying)能(neng)(neng)力底(di)数。加强(qiang)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安全监测预(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)，强(qiang)化苗头性、倾向性、潜在(zai)性问题研判(pan)。完(wan)善(shan)应(ying)(ying)急保(bao)供(gong)协(xie)调(diao)机制，强(qiang)化政策落实和监督管理措施，充分(fen)(fen)发挥运(yun)行(xing)协(xie)调(diao)、环境保(bao)供(gong)、安全等(deng)多部(bu)门协(xie)同工作合力，充分(fen)(fen)调(diao)度(du)中央(yang)和地方，政府和企业、行(xing)业协(xie)会(hui)等(deng)社会(hui)第三方力量的协(xie)同作用(yong)，做好应(ying)(ying)对(dui)预(yu)(yu)案，保(bao)障能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)稳(wen)定运(yun)行(xing)。
中国电力(li)企业(ye)联合(he)会
课题(ti)组(zu)组(zu)长:安(an)洪光
成员单位:理事(shi)长、有关(guan)副理事(shi)长单位
主笔人：叶春、尹(yin)琳琳、刘(liu)伟、刘(liu)峻江、郑小侠(xia)、王啸宇、宋建华(hua)、刘(liu)雪飞、李绍丽
